Iran could potentially launch military strikes as early as this autumn, targeting various high-value assets in an effort to counter increasing U.S. economic sanctions, a national security analyst cautioned on Thursday.
This warning emerged as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) reported that two vessels were impacted while navigating the Strait of Hormuz, according to the United Arab Emirates' state news agency, WAM. ADNOC confirmed there were no injuries and the situation was under control, as reported by Reuters. The UAE foreign ministry subsequently condemned what it described as Iranian attacks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on Thursday that Washington is preparing to enact unprecedented economic measures against Iran.
"Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like we have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country," Bessent stated in an interview on Newsmax.
Potential for 'Kinetic' Response
Ben Taleblu, a national security analyst, suggested that Iran could respond militarily to U.S. economic policies. "Come early fall, what we can expect is for them to kinetically push back against Trump's economic policy," Taleblu explained. "If the president is re-embracing economic pressure as a management approach, just like we saw in 2019, then the regime will use kinetic pressure to try to find a way to break out of that economic containment."
Taleblu further elaborated that diminishing oil revenues and the U.S. naval presence could prompt Tehran to broaden its list of targets across the region. "This means they would embrace the kinetic tool, and that's how they would get out of the economic containment regime that the U.S. seems to be defaulting to want to put on them," he added.
He outlined potential targets: "I would say more attacks on ships, potentially more attacks on U.S. bases, potentially more attacks on Arab infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. And certainly the regime would create a tiered list of targets of what is of immediate value versus what has greater economic value versus what might lead to the U.S. directly or indirectly responding."
Diplomatic Standoff and Failed Agreement
These warnings come amidst a persistent stalemate in discussions between Washington and Tehran. A senior Iranian source informed Reuters on August 12 that there have been no talks regarding an extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. Tehran has consistently demanded that Washington rejoin the pact and establish a clear timeline for fulfilling its commitments.
An interim memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed in June, had called for the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts." However, the agreement subsequently dissolved, with Trump declaring the pact "over" on July 7.
The framework initially provided both parties with an extendable 60-day period to negotiate a final agreement addressing critical security concerns, including Iran's nuclear program. That deadline is set for August 17, with control over the Strait of Hormuz remaining a significant point of contention.
Contesting Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Hossein Taeb, the recently appointed head of Iran's Basij paramilitary force, asserted on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz remains "under Iran's control and management." His remarks directly contradicted an earlier statement by Trump, who claimed the U.S. held "total control" over the vital waterway.
Taleblu described Iran's strategy as relying on established tactics. "The regime is relying on tried and true tactics here, which is, you know, a knife in the back and a handshake in the front to many of America's traditional Gulf partners," he observed. "It looks like Iranian escalation, Iranian diplomatic pressure, Iranian diplomatic finesse is trying to back the Trump administration into the MOU again."
He concluded that Iran is determined not to grant the Trump administration a perception of victory, stating, "The regime definitely does not want to grant the Trump administration the optics of victory, and to that end, they're quite keen to hold on to the Strait of Hormuz."
Taleblu noted that Trump has characterized the sanctions-driven approach as a "low-key" strategy. "These are high-impact tools," he concluded, suggesting that "part of the escalation that we saw in the summer of 2019 — part of that past could be a prologue."
